Black by Popular Demand – Activist by Choice

LCS Bot Lane Analysis

It’s time to dive into Bot Lane! Normally, I like to do things Top>Jungle>Mid>Bot, but a few factors weighed in here.

  • ADC and Support both have the most cemented picks, which makes the analysis the most straightforward.
  • I will be publishing a Top Lane Analysis on Friday, to supplement my post for Riot.
  • Third, Mid would be a bad place to start, with how varied the picks are.
  • Fourth, Jungle seemed an odd place to start.

So let’s start with a review and an update of our previous data. Youll note that these infographics are a bit different than the previous ones. Anywhere text or a bubble has been colored a shade of red, yellow, or green, that represents a losing, even, or winning record, proportional to the intensity of that color.

ADCs

ADC-ALL-WinRates

So while we can see that Lucian, Caitlyn, Jinx, and Sivir are the top picked ADCs, we can also see that Lucian has a losing record (43%), Caitlyn has a near-even record (52%), and Sivir/Jinx have winning records (56%/55%). Looking at the next-most-picked ADCs, we have Ezreal (29%), Draven (67%), and Vayne (80%). For now, let’s ignore Vayne, because she’s only played by CandyPanda and Doublelift. We can also leave Draven out simply due to a low number of picks. This leaves us with a few questions:

  1. Why does anybody pick Ezreal?
    • This is easy enough to explain: he has been a comfort pick for so long that pro players return to him.
  2. But why is Lucian such a constant pick? He has had a low win-rate for some time now, and yet still has the most picks.
    • This answer is a bit more complicated, and requires some knowledge of matchups:
      • Jinx may have a 55% win rate, but she has a 30% win rate vs Caitlyn, and is very dangerous to pick against heavy dive compositions. So you can’t first-pick Jinx.
      • As for first-picking Caitlyn, Caitlyn doesn’t synergize well with Leona or Annie, which basically locks you into Thresh, which hurts a lot if Thresh is secured by the other team.
      • Lucian’s win rate may be 43%, but that is largely due to a 30% win rate vs Jinx. If you leave that matchup out, Lucian’s record is 25-26, basically even.
      • Even rate with Leona support. Every other ADC (but Sivir) has a losing win rate when paired with Leona. If you’re running Leona, you’re probably best off running Lucian.
  3. Sivir is basically better Lucian, with winning matchups against every ADC. So why is she not the safety pick?
    • Familiarity: only WildTurtle has a lot of experience on her, and seeing his success, other ADC players are starting to follow suit, including Rekkles, Tabzz, Doublelift, and Sneaky.
    • Inflexibility: Sivir has no dashes, and is thus — at least seen as — potentially easy to counter. However, her Spell Shield makes her quite safe. Perhaps we will see her take off as a pick as people realize this. Until then, look to see players continue to pick Lucian because Jinx is a pick you don’t want to make early.

Supports

Support-All-WinRates

Thresh, Leona, and Annie are the major supports from a pick perspective, but Thresh is the only one with a winning (59%) record. Leona has a pitiful 41% win rate, and Annie is sitting at 46%. Morgana has seen rather crushing success against Thresh and Leona, while Lulu has done quite poorly, with no winning matchups that aren’t 1-0.

Morgana is the only matchup that Thresh loses (33%), and he wins every other matchup hard:

  • Leona – 61%
  • Annie – 59%
  • Lulu – 62%
  • Alistar – 60%

In turn, Morgana beats both Thresh (67%) and Leona (83%).

Finally, Annie beats Morgana (67%); while there have been only 3 games of this matchup, Vander (who popularized support Morgana this season) even says that that matchup is extremely scary in the mid-to-late game unless you have ninja reflexes.

This data is unsurprising, given that Thresh has been picked or banned in 113/128 games. It does raise questions about the 56 Annie bans, however, as Annie holds a losing matchup against both Thresh (41%) and Leona (48%). Perhaps EU and NA teams are still living in the shadow of the fear of Royal Club?

Synergy

So what supports and ADCs go best together?

Bot-Lane

It turns out that Thresh synergizes with every ADC. Seriously, if that doesn’t make you want to play Thresh every game, let me reiterate what we’ve seen so far. Thresh has a winning record vs every support but Morgana, and a winning (or even) record with every major ADC.

Leona, on the other hand, struggles with almost every ADC but Sivir and Lucian. This makes a lot of sense; Jinx wants to push towers, while Caitlyn would prefer to poke and push. Neither of these particularly synergizes with Leona’s all-in style. Leona is strongest when bursty ADCs like Corki and Graves are strong, and that time isn’t now, especially with Morgana support seeing more play.

Annie doesn’t have great synergy with most of the ADCs, but she is spectacular with Jinx, and has done well with Vayne thus far. Her ability to bully lane makes up for their early weaknesses, and allows them to be come extremely scary.

Morgana’s has been picked mostly  with Lucian and Caitlyn and Sivir, all of whom can disengage easily, while poking their enemies down (although more data would be welcome).

Why is everybody playing Ezreal with Leona? 2-8 is a painful record. Other than that, his record isn’t that bad (3-4).

Some of my infographics were left out to save space; find them below:

ADC v ADC

Support v Support – In progress; check back tomorrow!

————————————————

Mattias “Gentleman Gustaf” Lehman is a big time nerd-gamer with high-level experience in both SC2 and LoL. He has ranked as high as Diamond 1 in solo queue and Diamond 3 in arranged 5s.

You can see his other work here:

Facebook Page

Guides

Reign of Gaming LoL articles

Creative Content

Social Commentary

I love to talk to friends, and you can add me at Gentleman Gustaf, but keep in mind that my friend list is very near full, so I may not reply, or I may delete you shortly thereafter (to make room for others)

Tagged as: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Categorised in: Analysis, eSports, League of Legends

9 Responses »

  1. I wonder what the win rates of entire bot lanes are (meaning specific 2v2 match ups rather than evaluating match ups as one champion paired with or facing one other champion). I don’t think this question can be accurately answered now due to insufficient data, but I would like to see what pairing in the lane is most important. For example if the opposing team has Thresh and we have a Jinx is it generally better to have Morgana as a Thresh counter or Annie for her synergy with Jinx? Should teams prioritize synergy or counters, if counters what roles should pick the counters and what roles need to be countered?
    Questions that will likely never be conclusively answered aside the article was great, I can’t wait for the rest of the series.

    Like

    • I think I’ll have enough data to do this for the major lanes by the end of the split. Unfortunately, patch changes will make even that data a bit rough.

      Like

  2. Very very interesting stuff.

    One guess as to the high number of Annie bans is her interaction with and against Jinx. Even though Lucian and Caitlyn have been picked more it there is a feel (and this is the weakest part of my argument) that Jinx is more coveted by most teams. Just harder to pick due to being less flexible. Annie is strong both with and against Jinx. Banning Annie allows you to pick Thresh and make it really hard for the opponent to set up a lane where they can pick Jinx, while leaving the pick open for yourself depending on how the rest of pick bans plays out.

    Then again it could be all off base because I am heavily overestimating how much teams value Jinx

    Like

  3. Bumping because I’d love to see the support v Support chart. I just want to make sure you haven’t forgotten, completely understand if you’ve been too busy to get to it.

    Like

    • I’ll be on it soon; I ended up doing 2 posts today, due to a desire to sync my top lane post with my Riot post, but also to ensure that I had a post for today (the jungle post). I should be uploading the support chart over the weekend.

      Like

  4. Given the sheer prevalence of Caitlyn, Jinx and Lucian should people be playing more tristana? Also is Ashe on the bench with no escape or does she have potential?

    Like

    • I think Tristana is stronger than people give her credit for, but would suffer from two problems in the current meta.

      1) Weak mid game – the mid game pushing is SUPER important, and her pushing and teamfights are both weak due to still-growing range and weak steroids (unless she maxed Q early and had a week lane)

      2) No real scaling burst (making assassins and bruisers scary).

      According to LemonNation and Sneaky (about the only people to understand Ashe well last season), Ashe is weak for two reasons; the weakness of her good supports like Janna/Zyra and the strength of diving champions like Vi/Leona. Maybe the strength of Morgana could help bring her back?

      Like

      • Thanks for replying. I have been looking for a new adc to play along with Sivir and Caitlyn. I have had some renewed interest in Tristana, because she can close with jinx and caitlyn in the laning phase and next patch her q is free to cast. I like Ashe, but in laning phase I want to farm and play it safe while my support wants to go in and fight which causes a lot of unneeded tension in the laning phase. I didn’t think about her supports being weak although that is definitely true.

        Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: